Needham Market v Bishop's Stortford prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Needham Market 2–1 Bishop's Stortford NEEDHAM MARKET WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Needham Market win~~62%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.220

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Needham Market win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Needham Market was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–18
1′KICK-OFF Needham Market v Bishop's Stortford
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Needham Market win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
37′Needham Market find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–5
37′We published Needham Market at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–5
37′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–5
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Needham Market 1–0 Bishop's Stortford
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Needham Market win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
38′A goal for Needham Market on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Needham Market 2–0 Bishop's Stortford
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Needham Market win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
39′We published Needham Market at 62%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Needham Market 2–0 Bishop's Stortford
46′SECOND HALF Needham Market 2–0 Bishop's Stortford
78′Bishop's Stortford score on 78′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
78′We published Needham Market at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Needham Market 2–1 Bishop's Stortford
FTFULL TIME Needham Market 2–1 Bishop's Stortford
FTNeedham Market 2–1 Bishop's Stortford · Needham Market win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Needham Market are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Needham Market 62%, draw 21%, Bishop's Stortford 18%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Needham Market v Bishop's StortfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Needham Market win62%

Draw21%

Bishop's Stortford win18%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Needham Market

Bishop's Stortford

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · needham market winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

62% The market61%

Us62%

~~Market~~61%

We make Needham Market a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Needham Market v Bishop's Stortford~~2.13 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~7 v 17

~~The market · Needham Market win~~61% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Needham Market win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Needham Market win	62%	61%	+1
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Bishop's Stortford win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Needham Market or draw	82%	83%	−1
Needham Market clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bishop's Stortford clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.8 4.4 2.4 1 9.0 9.5 4.8 2 9.5 9.6 4.9 3 6.7 6.7 3.5 4 3.6 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Needham Market down, Bishop's Stortford across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Needham Market at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bishop's Stortford away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Needham Market, 1.03 for Bishop's Stortford. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BIS 1–2 NEE · NEE 0–4 BIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

NEEDHAM MARKET

WWLDWW2–0 · 4–0 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 2–1

BISHOP'S STORTFORD

WWWLLL2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	11	+23	31
2	Bury Town	12	+8	30
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	+7	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Halesowen Town	10	+1	17
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
12	Redditch United	11	+1	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	−1	14
14	Leiston	10	0	12
15	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
16	Leamington	12	−4	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	12	−11	7
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5
22	Stamford	12	−29	1