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Needham Market v Anstey Nomads

Needham Market

1–1Full time

Anstey Nomads

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads NEEDHAM MARKET WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Needham Market win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.910

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Needham Market win at 48%.
3′KICK-OFF Needham Market v Anstey Nomads
6′3′ and it is 0–1: K. Bastos on the scoresheet for Anstey Nomads. 0–1 · 25–22–53
6′⚽ GOAL · 3' Needham Market 0–1 Anstey Nomads · K. Bastos
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Needham Market win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Anstey Nomads win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Needham Market win 25%)
26′Needham Market find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–24–56
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads
45′HALF-TIME Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads
46′SECOND HALF Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads
FTFULL TIME Needham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads
FTNeedham Market 1–1 Anstey Nomads · Needham Market win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Needham Market win48%

Draw23%

Anstey Nomads win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · needham market winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Needham Market a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · needham market win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Needham Market win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	23%	25%	−3
Anstey Nomads win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Needham Market or draw	71%	64%	+7
Needham Market clean sheet	26%	–	–
Anstey Nomads clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.5 5.6 3.9 1 7.4 10.2 6.9 3.2 2 6.8 9.0 6.1 2.9 3 4.1 5.5 3.7 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Needham Market down, Anstey Nomads across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Needham Market at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Anstey Nomads away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Needham Market, 1.38 for Anstey Nomads. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

NEEDHAM MARKET

LWDWWL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–5

ANSTEY NOMADS

WLWWDL2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0