Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Leighton Town v Rushall Olympic

Leighton Town v Rushall Olympic

Leighton Town

0–3Full time

Rushall Olympic

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Leighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic RUSHALL OLYMPIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rushall Olympic win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rushall Olympic win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rushall Olympic was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 33–22–46
1′KICK-OFF Leighton Town v Rushall Olympic
9′Much as we predicted: Rushall Olympic was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 33–23–45
17′Rushall Olympic score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–18–68
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Leighton Town 0–1 Rushall Olympic
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Rushall Olympic win: 46% at kick-off, 68% now
18′We published Rushall Olympic at 46%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 14–18–68
19′Rushall Olympic score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–68
25′Rushall Olympic find the net on 25′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–9–87
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Leighton Town 0–2 Rushall Olympic
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Rushall Olympic win: 46% at kick-off, 87% now
26′We published Rushall Olympic at 46%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
37′PENALTY MISSED · 36' Leighton Town
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–2 · 3–8–89
42′We published Rushall Olympic at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
44′A goal for Rushall Olympic on 44′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Leighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Rushall Olympic win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
45′We published Rushall Olympic at 46%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–3 · 1–2–97
45′HALF-TIME Leighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic
46′SECOND HALF Leighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic
70′We published Rushall Olympic at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Leighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic
FTLeighton Town 0–3 Rushall Olympic · Rushall Olympic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rushall Olympic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leighton Town 33%, draw 21%, Rushall Olympic 46%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Leighton Town v Rushall OlympicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leighton Town win33%

Draw21%

Rushall Olympic win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leighton Town

Rushall Olympic

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rushall olympic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Rushall Olympic a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leighton Town v Rushall Olympic~~1.67 – 2.01

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 21~~21 v 6

~~The market · Rushall Olympic win~~44% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rushall Olympic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leighton Town win	33%	30%	+3
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Rushall Olympic win	46%	44%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	59%	+11
Both teams to score	69%	62%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	88%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	50%	39%	+11
Leighton Town or draw	54%	56%	−2
Leighton Town clean sheet	14%	–	–
Rushall Olympic clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 5.1 5.2 3.4 1 4.3 8.6 8.2 5.4 2.8 2 3.7 6.9 6.7 4.4 2.3 3 2.1 3.9 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leighton Town down, Rushall Olympic across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Leighton Town at home: 1.75 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Rushall Olympic away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Leighton Town, 2.01 for Rushall Olympic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug

LEIGHTON TOWN

LLLLLL2–3 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2

RUSHALL OLYMPIC

LWLWWL2–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 5–3 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1