Leighton Town v Racing Club Warwick prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Racing Club Warwick are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leighton Town 34%, draw 24%, Racing Club Warwick 43%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Leighton Town v Racing Club WarwickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Leighton Town win34%

Draw24%

Racing Club Warwick win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leighton Town

Racing Club Warwick

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing club warwick winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:11 · postponed, not graded

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Racing Club Warwick a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leighton Town v Racing Club Warwick~~1.46 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 17~~21 v 10

~~The market · Racing Club Warwick win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Club Warwick win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leighton Town win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Racing Club Warwick win	43%	39%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Leighton Town or draw	57%	61%	−4
Leighton Town clean sheet	20%	–	–
Racing Club Warwick clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.9 7.2 6.1 3.4 1 6.3 10.7 8.6 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.6 6.2 3.5 3 2.3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leighton Town down, Racing Club Warwick across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Leighton Town at home: 1.40 scored, 2.40 conceded a game (last 5). Racing Club Warwick away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Leighton Town, 1.67 for Racing Club Warwick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept

LEIGHTON TOWN

LLLLLL2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

RACING CLUB WARWICK

LDWDWW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	12	+23	32
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
15	Leiston	11	−4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
17	Leamington	13	−6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	−8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1