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Leamington v Redditch United

Leamington

2–2Full time

Redditch United

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Leamington 2–2 Redditch United LEAMINGTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leamington win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leamington win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leamington was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Leamington v Redditch United
29′28′ and it is 0–1: Redditch United have scored. 0–1 · 15–24–61
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Leamington 0–1 Redditch United
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Leamington win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Redditch United win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Leamington win 15%)
30′We said Leamington at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–62
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–62
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Leamington 0–2 Redditch United
32′Redditch United find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Leamington win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
34′Redditch United ahead on 30′ through S. Whyte-Hall. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
40′We said Leamington at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Leamington win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Leamington 0–2 Redditch United
46′SECOND HALF Leamington 0–2 Redditch United
58′⚽ GOAL · 29' Leamington 0–2 Redditch United · S. Whyte-Hall
58′⚽ GOAL · 30' Leamington 0–2 Redditch United · S. Whyte-Hall
70′PENALTY MISSED · 69' Redditch United
90′90′ and it is 2–2: Leamington have scored. 2–2 · 5–91–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Leamington 1–2 Redditch United
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Leamington 2–2 Redditch United
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Leamington win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Redditch United win 4%)
FTFULL TIME Leamington 2–2 Redditch United
FTLeamington 2–2 Redditch United · Leamington win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Leamington win43%

Draw25%

Redditch United win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leamington

Redditch United

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
16	Leamington	10	−3	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leamington winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Leamington a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leamington win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leamington win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Redditch United win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Leamington or draw	68%	68%	0
Leamington clean sheet	29%	–	–
Redditch United clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 7.9 5.0 2.1 1 9.5 11.8 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leamington down, Redditch United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leamington at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Redditch United away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Leamington, 1.25 for Redditch United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RED 0–3 LEA · LEA 3–0 RED

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

LEAMINGTON

DWLDWL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–2

REDDITCH UNITED

LWLWDW1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0