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Kettering Town v Leiston

Kettering Town

4–0Full time

Leiston

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Kettering Town 4–0 Leiston KETTERING TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kettering Town win~~52%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.321

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kettering Town win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kettering Town 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Kettering Town v Leiston
40′Kettering Town score on 40′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Kettering Town 1–0 Leiston
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Kettering Town win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
41′We said Kettering Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
43′Kettering Town find the net on 43′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
43′We said Kettering Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kettering Town 2–0 Leiston
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Kettering Town win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME Kettering Town 2–0 Leiston
46′SECOND HALF Kettering Town 2–0 Leiston
47′We said Kettering Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
63′A goal for Kettering Town on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kettering Town 3–0 Leiston
65′A goal for Kettering Town on 62′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′We said Kettering Town at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′Kettering Town score on 90′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kettering Town 4–0 Leiston
92′89′: T. Alexandrou on the scoresheet for Kettering Town, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Kettering Town 4–0 Leiston
FTKettering Town 4–0 Leiston · Kettering Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kettering Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kettering Town 52%, draw 23%, Leiston 25%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Kettering Town v LeistonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Kettering Town win52%

Draw23%

Leiston win25%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kettering Town

Leiston

7Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
14	Leiston	10	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kettering town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

52% The market54%

Us52%

~~Market~~54%

We make Kettering Town a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kettering Town v Leiston~~1.81 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~8 v 14

~~The market · Kettering Town win~~54% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kettering Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kettering Town win	52%	54%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Leiston win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Kettering Town or draw	75%	78%	−3
Kettering Town clean sheet	31%	–	–
Leiston clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.6 5.9 3.6 1 9.0 10.9 6.2 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 5.0 5.7 3.3 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kettering Town down, Leiston across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kettering Town at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Leiston away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Kettering Town, 1.18 for Leiston. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEI 4–1 KET · KET 3–0 LEI · LEI 0–2 KET · KET 2–1 LEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug

KETTERING TOWN

WWLWDL5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

LEISTON

WLWLLD3–1 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	11	+23	31
2	Bury Town	12	+8	30
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	+7	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Halesowen Town	10	+1	17
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
12	Redditch United	11	+1	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	−1	14
14	Leiston	10	0	12
15	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
16	Leamington	12	−4	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	12	−11	7
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5
22	Stamford	12	−29	1