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Kettering Town v Halesowen Town

Kettering Town

1–1Full time

Halesowen Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Kettering Town 1–1 Halesowen Town KETTERING TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kettering Town win~~45%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.861

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.852

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kettering Town win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Kettering Town v Halesowen Town
4′J. Cowley scores for Halesowen Town on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–22–55
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Kettering Town win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Halesowen Town win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Kettering Town win 23%)
25′We said Kettering Town at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
45′HALF-TIME Kettering Town 0–1 Halesowen Town
47′SECOND HALF Kettering Town 0–1 Halesowen Town
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kettering Town 1–1 Halesowen Town
FTFULL TIME Kettering Town 1–1 Halesowen Town
FTKettering Town 1–1 Halesowen Town · Kettering Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kettering Town win45%

Draw25%

Halesowen Town win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kettering town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Kettering Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kettering town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kettering Town win	45%	49%	−3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Halesowen Town win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	32%	0
Kettering Town or draw	70%	75%	−5
Kettering Town clean sheet	29%	–	–
Halesowen Town clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 7.2 4.6 1 9.2 11.5 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 4.0 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kettering Town down, Halesowen Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kettering Town at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Halesowen Town away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Kettering Town, 1.25 for Halesowen Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KET 0–0 HAL · HAL 1–1 KET · KET 0–0 HAL · HAL 2–1 KET

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

KETTERING TOWN

DDWWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 4–1

HALESOWEN TOWN

WWLLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0