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Hitchin Town v Peterborough Sports

Hitchin Town

0–1Full time

Peterborough Sports

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hitchin Town 0–1 Peterborough Sports PETERBOROUGH SPORTS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Peterborough Sports win~~50%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Peterborough Sports win at 50%.
3′KICK-OFF Hitchin Town v Peterborough Sports
6′Much as we predicted: Peterborough Sports was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 26–24–50
45′HALF-TIME Hitchin Town 0–0 Peterborough Sports
46′SECOND HALF Hitchin Town 0–0 Peterborough Sports
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Hitchin Town 0–1 Peterborough Sports
FTFULL TIME Hitchin Town 0–1 Peterborough Sports
FTHitchin Town 0–1 Peterborough Sports · Peterborough Sports win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hitchin Town win26%

Draw23%

Peterborough Sports win50%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · peterborough sports winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Peterborough Sports a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · peterborough sports win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hitchin Town win	26%	29%	−3
Draw	23%	27%	−3
Peterborough Sports win	50%	44%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Hitchin Town or draw	50%	56%	−6
Hitchin Town clean sheet	17%	–	–
Peterborough Sports clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.3 8.7 7.8 4.7 2.2 1 6.0 10.6 9.2 5.6 2.6 2 3.7 6.4 5.7 3.4 3 2.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hitchin Town down, Peterborough Sports across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hitchin Town at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Peterborough Sports away: 2.00 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Hitchin Town, 1.80 for Peterborough Sports. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

HITCHIN TOWN

DLDLWL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–4

PETERBOROUGH SPORTS

WDWWDW2–1 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0