Hitchin Town v Bury Town prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hitchin Town 5–1 Bury Town BURY TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bury Town win~~50%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bury Town win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bury Town 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
1′KICK-OFF Hitchin Town v Bury Town
7′Hitchin Town find the net on 7′. 2–0. 2–0 · 75–15–11
7′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–0 · 75–15–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 4' Hitchin Town 2–0 Bury Town
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Hitchin Town 2–0 Bury Town
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 11% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Hitchin Town win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Bury Town win 49%)
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
13′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 76–14–9
18′A goal for Hitchin Town on 17′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 92–6–3
18′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 3–0 · 92–6–3
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Hitchin Town 3–0 Bury Town
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 94–4–2
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Hitchin Town 3–1 Bury Town
40′Bury Town score on 39′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 85–11–4
40′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 85–11–4
41′37′: J. McGrath on the scoresheet for Bury Town, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 85–11–4
45′HALF-TIME Hitchin Town 3–1 Bury Town
46′SECOND HALF Hitchin Town 3–1 Bury Town
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
81′Hitchin Town find the net on 81′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hitchin Town 4–1 Bury Town
94′A goal for Hitchin Town on 90′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hitchin Town 5–1 Bury Town
FTFULL TIME Hitchin Town 5–1 Bury Town
FTHitchin Town 5–1 Bury Town · Bury Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bury Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hitchin Town 25%, draw 25%, Bury Town 50%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hitchin Town v Bury TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hitchin Town win25%

Draw25%

Bury Town win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hitchin Town

Bury Town

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

50% The market47%

Us50%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bury Town a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hitchin Town v Bury Town~~1.08 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 31~~19 v 2

~~The market · Bury Town win~~47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bury Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hitchin Town win	25%	27%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Bury Town win	50%	47%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Hitchin Town or draw	50%	53%	−3
Hitchin Town clean sheet	20%	–	–
Bury Town clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.0 10.5 8.8 4.9 2.1 1 6.9 11.6 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.9 6.2 5.0 2.8 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hitchin Town down, Bury Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hitchin Town at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bury Town away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Hitchin Town, 1.66 for Bury Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–0 HIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept

HITCHIN TOWN

LWLLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

BURY TOWN

WWWLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	12	+23	32
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
15	Leiston	11	−4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
17	Leamington	13	−6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	−8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1