Halesowen Town v Leamington prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Halesowen TownDrawLeamington

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Halesowen Town 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Halesowen Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Halesowen Town 50%, draw 24%, Leamington 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Halesowen Town v LeamingtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Halesowen Town win50%

Draw24%

Leamington win27%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halesowen Town

Leamington

3Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
19	Leamington	13	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · halesowen town winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Halesowen Town a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Halesowen Town v Leamington~~1.75 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~11 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Halesowen Town win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Leamington win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Halesowen Town or draw	73%	–	–
Halesowen Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Leamington clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.8 6.2 3.9 1 9.0 11.0 6.5 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Halesowen Town down, Leamington across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,973 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Halesowen Town at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leamington away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Halesowen Town, 1.21 for Leamington. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEA 1–0 HAL · HAL 0–0 LEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept

HALESOWEN TOWN

WWDDWL4–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–5

LEAMINGTON

DWLDLL1–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	13	+21	32
2	Bury Town	14	+4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	+12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	−4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	−6	13
16	Banbury United	13	−7	13
17	Leiston	11	−4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	−8	12
19	Leamington	13	−6	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1