Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Halesowen Town v Hitchin Town

Halesowen Town v Hitchin Town

Halesowen Town

2–1Full time

Hitchin Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Halesowen Town 2–1 Hitchin Town HALESOWEN TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Halesowen Town win~~65%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Halesowen Town win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Halesowen Town v Hitchin Town
2′Much as we predicted: Halesowen Town was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
36′Halesowen Town find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Halesowen Town 1–0 Hitchin Town
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
37′We published Halesowen Town at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
37′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
45′HALF-TIME Halesowen Town 1–0 Hitchin Town
46′SECOND HALF Halesowen Town 1–0 Hitchin Town
66′A goal for Hitchin Town on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–51–13
66′We said Halesowen Town at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–51–13
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Halesowen Town 1–1 Hitchin Town
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 36% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Halesowen Town win 36%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
68′We said Halesowen Town at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–54–12
72′J. Breen scores for Hitchin Town on 66′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–59–11
74′We said Halesowen Town at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–62–10
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
77′We said Halesowen Town at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–68–9
80′We said Halesowen Town at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–74–7
81′Halesowen Town score on 80′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 93–6–0
81′We published Halesowen Town at 65%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–6–0
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–6–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Halesowen Town 2–1 Hitchin Town
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 93% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Halesowen Town win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
84′We published Halesowen Town at 65%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Halesowen Town win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Halesowen Town 2–1 Hitchin Town
FTHalesowen Town 2–1 Hitchin Town · Halesowen Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Halesowen Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Halesowen Town 65%, draw 20%, Hitchin Town 15%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Halesowen Town v Hitchin TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Halesowen Town win65%

Draw20%

Hitchin Town win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halesowen Town

Hitchin Town

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · halesowen town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

65% The market59%

Us65%

~~Market~~59%

We make Halesowen Town a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Halesowen Town v Hitchin Town~~2.11 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~12 v 20

~~The market · Halesowen Town win~~59% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Halesowen Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Halesowen Town win	65%	59%	+6
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Hitchin Town win	15%	18%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	32%	+3
Halesowen Town or draw	85%	82%	+3
Halesowen Town clean sheet	43%	–	–
Hitchin Town clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 5.6 4.4 2.0 1 10.7 9.4 4.0 2 11.2 9.4 4.1 3 7.8 6.6 2.8 4 4.3 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Halesowen Town down, Hitchin Town across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Halesowen Town at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hitchin Town away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Halesowen Town, 0.86 for Hitchin Town. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HIT 1–2 HAL · HAL 0–4 HIT · HIT 0–1 HAL · HAL 1–3 HIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug

HALESOWEN TOWN

LLWWDD0–2 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

HITCHIN TOWN

LDLWLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1