Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Bury Town v Stourbridge
Back

Bury Town v Stourbridge
Bury Town
StourbridgeNon League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bury Town win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Bury Town 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Bury Town v Stourbridge
- 6′Little has changed for our model: Bury Town 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Bury Town 0–0 Stourbridge
- 46′SECOND HALF Bury Town 0–0 Stourbridge
- 47′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–39–23
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bury Town win 36%)
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–44–21
- 56′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
- 59′Bury Town score on 59′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 59′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bury Town 1–0 Stourbridge
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Bury Town win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
- 70′Stourbridge are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Stourbridge
- 71′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 80′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 87′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 90′Bury Town find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bury Town 2–0 Stourbridge
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- FTFULL TIME Bury Town 2–0 Stourbridge
- FTBury Town 2–0 Stourbridge · Bury Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassBury Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bury Town 50%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Bury Town win50%
Stourbridge win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Bury TownMIN
StourbridgeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bury Town
Stourbridge
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bury Town a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 54%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bury Town win | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Stourbridge win | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Bury Town or draw | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Bury Town clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Stourbridge clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug
BURY TOWN
STOURBRIDGE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 10 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 11 | +6 | 27 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 11 | +10 | 26 |
| 4 | Peterborough Sports | 12 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Alvechurch | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 6 | Rushall Olympic | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | Stourbridge | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Redditch United | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Halesowen Town | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Leiston | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Racing Club Warwick | 11 | −3 | 11 |
| 15 | Leamington | 11 | −3 | 10 |
| 16 | Bishop's Stortford | 10 | −5 | 10 |
| 17 | Stratford Town | 11 | −8 | 10 |
| 18 | Banbury United | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 19 | Worcester City | 11 | −8 | 7 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 11 | −10 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 10 | −9 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 11 | −25 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Real Bedford
Bromsgrove Sporting
Peterborough Sports
Alvechurch
Rushall Olympic
Kettering Town
Anstey Nomads
Needham Market
Redditch United
Halesowen Town
Leiston
Racing Club Warwick
Leamington
Bishop's Stortford
Stratford Town
Banbury United
Worcester City
Hitchin Town
Leighton Town
Stamford