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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Bury Town v Stourbridge

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Bury Town v Stourbridge

Bury Town
2–0Full time
Stourbridge

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Bury Town 2–0 Stourbridge BURY TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bury Town win50%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.378
The market’s Brier score0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bury Town win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bury Town 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bury Town v Stourbridge
  4. 6′Little has changed for our model: Bury Town 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
  5. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Bury Town 0–0 Stourbridge
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Bury Town 0–0 Stourbridge
  8. 47′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–39–23
  9. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bury Town win 36%)
  10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–44–21
  11. 56′We said Bury Town at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
  12. 59′Bury Town score on 59′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  13. 59′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  14. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bury Town 1–0 Stourbridge
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  16. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Bury Town win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
  17. 70′Stourbridge are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  18. 70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Stourbridge
  19. 71′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  20. 80′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  21. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  22. 87′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  23. 90′Bury Town find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 90′We said Bury Town at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Bury Town 2–0 Stourbridge
  26. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Bury Town win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  27. FTFULL TIME Bury Town 2–0 Stourbridge
  28. FTBury Town 2–0 Stourbridge · Bury Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bury Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bury Town 50%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bury Town v StourbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bury Town win50%
Draw25%
Stourbridge win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bury Town

Stourbridge

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Bury Town11+627
10Stourbridge11016

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off
50% The market45%
Us50%
Market45%

We make Bury Town a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bury Town v Stourbridge1.68 – 1.13
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 AugW4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 27 v 162 v 10
The market · Bury Town win45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Bury Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bury Town win50%45%+5
Draw25%26%−1
Stourbridge win26%29%−3
Over 2.5 goals53%53%0
Both teams to score55%57%−2
Over 1.5 goals77%75%+2
Over 3.5 goals31%33%−2
Bury Town or draw74%71%+3
Bury Town clean sheet33%––
Stourbridge clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.5 6.7 3.9 1 9.9 11.5 6.3 2.4 2 8.4 9.3 5.2 2.0 3 4.7 5.2 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bury Town down, Stourbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsBUR 1–1 STO · STO 2–0 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

BURY TOWN

WLWWWL4–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–5

STOURBRIDGE

DLDLWW1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Bedford10+1928
2Bury Town11+627
3Bromsgrove Sporting11+1026
4Peterborough Sports12+722
5Alvechurch11+1221
6Rushall Olympic12+421
7Kettering Town11+919
8Anstey Nomads11+419
9Needham Market11+717
10Stourbridge11016
11Redditch United11+114
12Halesowen Town9014
13Leiston10012
14Racing Club Warwick11−311
15Leamington11−310
16Bishop's Stortford10−510
17Stratford Town11−810
18Banbury United11−89
19Worcester City11−87
20Hitchin Town11−107
21Leighton Town10−95
22Stamford11−251

The competition's standings before kick-off.