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Bury Town v Needham Market

Bury Town

0–5Full time

Needham Market

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Bury Town 0–5 Needham Market BURY TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bury Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.797

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bury Town win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bury Town was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Bury Town v Needham Market
4′Needham Market find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–23–53
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bury Town 0–1 Needham Market
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Bury Town win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Needham Market win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Bury Town win 24%)
5′We said Bury Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Bury Town 0–2 Needham Market
18′A goal for Needham Market on 17′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–79
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Bury Town win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
19′We said Bury Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
40′We said Bury Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′45′ and it is 0–3: Needham Market have scored. 0–3 · 1–3–97
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 1–3–97
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market
45′HALF-TIME Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market
46′SECOND HALF Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market
58′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market · L. Pearce
58′⚽ GOAL · 17' Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market · L. Ingram
58′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bury Town 0–3 Needham Market · L. Pearce
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Bury Town 0–4 Needham Market
65′Needham Market find the net on 64′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bury Town 0–5 Needham Market
90′L. Pearce scores for Needham Market on 78′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bury Town 0–5 Needham Market
FTBury Town 0–5 Needham Market · Bury Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Bury Town win47%

Draw25%

Needham Market win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bury Town

Needham Market

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Bury Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bury town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bury Town win	47%	42%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Needham Market win	28%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Bury Town or draw	72%	68%	+3
Bury Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Needham Market clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.2 7.0 4.3 1 9.4 11.4 6.8 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bury Town down, Needham Market across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bury Town at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Needham Market away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Bury Town, 1.21 for Needham Market. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–1 NEE · NEE 4–2 BUR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

BURY TOWN

WWLWWW3–2 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

NEEDHAM MARKET

WDWWLD2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0