Bury Town v Banbury United prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bury TownDrawBanbury United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bury Town 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bury Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bury Town 52%, draw 25%, Banbury United 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bury Town v Banbury UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bury Town win52%

Draw25%

Banbury United win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bury Town

Banbury United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bury Town	14	+4	31
16	Banbury United	13	−7	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury town winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Bury Town a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bury Town v Banbury United~~1.65 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 13~~2 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bury Town win	52%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Banbury United win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Bury Town or draw	77%	–	–
Bury Town clean sheet	37%	–	–
Banbury United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.6 7.0 3.7 1 11.3 11.7 5.8 2.0 2 9.4 9.3 4.7 3 5.2 5.1 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bury Town down, Banbury United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,973 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bury Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Banbury United away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Bury Town, 1.01 for Banbury United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–0 BUR · BUR 2–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept

BURY TOWN

WWLWDL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–5

BANBURY UNITED

DLWLDW0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	13	+21	32
2	Bury Town	14	+4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	+12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	−4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	−6	13
16	Banbury United	13	−7	13
17	Leiston	11	−4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	−8	12
19	Leamington	13	−6	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1