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Bromsgrove Sporting v Kettering Town

Bromsgrove Sporting

2–1Full time

Kettering Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Bromsgrove Sporting 2–1 Kettering Town KETTERING TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kettering Town win~~42%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kettering Town win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kettering Town 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–25–42
1′KICK-OFF Bromsgrove Sporting v Kettering Town
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bromsgrove Sporting 0–1 Kettering Town
26′25′ and it is 0–1: Kettering Town have scored. 0–1 · 11–20–70
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Kettering Town win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
27′We said Kettering Town at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
39′🟥 RED CARD · 39' Kettering Town
41′Kettering Town are down to ten from 39′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 8–20–72
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Kettering Town win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Bromsgrove Sporting 0–1 Kettering Town
46′SECOND HALF Bromsgrove Sporting 0–1 Kettering Town
53′We said Kettering Town at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
53′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bromsgrove Sporting 0–1 Kettering Town · M. Gyasi
53′🟥 RED CARD · 39' E. Maja · Kettering Town
86′We said Kettering Town at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Kettering Town win: 42% at kick-off, 94% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bromsgrove Sporting 1–1 Kettering Town
88′Bromsgrove Sporting level it on 86′ through J. Matt. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–89–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Kettering Town win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Kettering Town win 6%)
90′We said Kettering Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 4–91–5
90′L. Barrow scores for Bromsgrove Sporting on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′We said Kettering Town at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Bromsgrove Sporting 2–1 Kettering Town
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Kettering Town win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Bromsgrove Sporting win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Bromsgrove Sporting 2–1 Kettering Town
FTBromsgrove Sporting 2–1 Kettering Town · Kettering Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Bromsgrove Sporting win32%

Draw26%

Kettering Town win42%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bromsgrove Sporting

Kettering Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kettering town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

42% The market28%

Us42%

~~Market~~28%

We make Kettering Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kettering town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bromsgrove Sporting win	32%	45%	−13
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Kettering Town win	42%	28%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−2
Bromsgrove Sporting or draw	58%	72%	−14
Bromsgrove Sporting clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kettering Town clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 9.3 7.0 3.5 1 7.9 11.9 8.7 4.4 2 5.1 7.4 5.5 2.8 3 2.2 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bromsgrove Sporting down, Kettering Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bromsgrove Sporting at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kettering Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Bromsgrove Sporting, 1.49 for Kettering Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KET 1–0 BRO · BRO 3–0 KET · KET 1–2 BRO · BRO 1–2 KET

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

BROMSGROVE SPORTING

WWWWDD3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

KETTERING TOWN

DWWLWD1–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0