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Bromsgrove Sporting v Banbury United

Bromsgrove Sporting

1–1Full time

Banbury United

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bromsgrove Sporting 1–1 Banbury United BROMSGROVE SPORTING WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bromsgrove Sporting win~~48%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.980

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bromsgrove Sporting win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Bromsgrove Sporting v Banbury United
2′Much as we predicted: Bromsgrove Sporting was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
36′A goal for Bromsgrove Sporting on 36′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–7
36′We published Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bromsgrove Sporting 1–0 Banbury United
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Bromsgrove Sporting
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 40% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Bromsgrove Sporting 0–0 Banbury United
46′SECOND HALF Bromsgrove Sporting 0–0 Banbury United
48′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–41–23
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bromsgrove Sporting win 36%)
52′A goal for Bromsgrove Sporting on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Bromsgrove Sporting 1–0 Banbury United
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Bromsgrove Sporting win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 17%)
57′We published Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
68′Banbury United score on 68′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–58–17
68′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–58–17
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bromsgrove Sporting 1–1 Banbury United
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Bromsgrove Sporting win 25%)
69′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 25–59–16
70′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–16
75′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
80′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′We said Bromsgrove Sporting at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bromsgrove Sporting win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Bromsgrove Sporting 1–1 Banbury United
FTBromsgrove Sporting 1–1 Banbury United · Bromsgrove Sporting win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bromsgrove Sporting are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bromsgrove Sporting 48%, draw 26%, Banbury United 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bromsgrove Sporting v Banbury UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bromsgrove Sporting win48%

Draw26%

Banbury United win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bromsgrove Sporting

Banbury United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bromsgrove sporting winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

48% The market61%

Us48%

~~Market~~61%

We make Bromsgrove Sporting a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bromsgrove Sporting v Banbury United~~1.55 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 9~~3 v 18

~~The market · Bromsgrove Sporting win~~61% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bromsgrove Sporting win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bromsgrove Sporting win	48%	61%	−13
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Banbury United win	26%	15%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Bromsgrove Sporting or draw	74%	85%	−11
Bromsgrove Sporting clean sheet	35%	–	–
Banbury United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 7.7 4.3 1 11.0 12.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.6 9.0 4.8 3 4.5 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bromsgrove Sporting down, Banbury United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bromsgrove Sporting at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Banbury United away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Bromsgrove Sporting, 1.07 for Banbury United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAN 3–0 BRO · BRO 3–0 BAN · BRO 1–2 BAN · BAN 0–0 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

BROMSGROVE SPORTING

WWWDDW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

BANBURY UNITED

LLDLWL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1