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Bishop's Stortford v Racing Club Warwick

Bishop's Stortford

2–4Full time

Racing Club Warwick

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bishop's Stortford 2–4 Racing Club Warwick BISHOP'S STORTFORD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bishop's Stortford win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.648

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bishop's Stortford win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bishop's Stortford 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Bishop's Stortford v Racing Club Warwick
6′Little has changed for our model: Bishop's Stortford 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
19′Racing Club Warwick find the net on 19′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Bishop's Stortford 0–1 Racing Club Warwick
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Bishop's Stortford win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Racing Club Warwick win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Bishop's Stortford win 14%)
20′We said Bishop's Stortford at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
22′Racing Club Warwick ahead on 18′ through K. Barnett. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–65
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
36′A goal for Racing Club Warwick on 36′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
36′We said Bishop's Stortford at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bishop's Stortford 0–2 Racing Club Warwick
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Bishop's Stortford win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
37′J. Hancocks scores for Racing Club Warwick on 35′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
45′HALF-TIME Bishop's Stortford 0–2 Racing Club Warwick
46′SECOND HALF Bishop's Stortford 0–2 Racing Club Warwick
53′Bishop's Stortford score on 52′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–72
53′We said Bishop's Stortford at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
53′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–21–72
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Bishop's Stortford 1–2 Racing Club Warwick
74′Bishop's Stortford find the net on 74′. 2–2. 2–2 · 17–66–16
74′We said Bishop's Stortford at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 2–2 · 17–66–16
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bishop's Stortford 2–2 Racing Club Warwick
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Bishop's Stortford win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Racing Club Warwick win 16%)
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 16–68–16
79′Bishop's Stortford find the net on 73′. 2–2. 2–2 · 13–75–12
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Bishop's Stortford win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′A goal for Racing Club Warwick on 89′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
89′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–5–95
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Bishop's Stortford 2–3 Racing Club Warwick
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Racing Club Warwick win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
90′Racing Club Warwick score on 90′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′Bishop's Stortford are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Bishop's Stortford 2–4 Racing Club Warwick
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Bishop's Stortford
FTFULL TIME Bishop's Stortford 2–4 Racing Club Warwick
FTBishop's Stortford 2–4 Racing Club Warwick · Bishop's Stortford win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bishop's Stortford just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bishop's Stortford 38%, draw 27%, Racing Club Warwick 35%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Bishop's Stortford v Racing Club WarwickBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bishop's Stortford win38%

Draw27%

Racing Club Warwick win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bishop's Stortford

Racing Club Warwick

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bishop's stortford winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Bishop's Stortford a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bishop's Stortford v Racing Club Warwick~~1.34 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~16 v 14

~~The market · Bishop's Stortford win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bishop's Stortford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bishop's Stortford win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Racing Club Warwick win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	57%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Bishop's Stortford or draw	65%	65%	0
Bishop's Stortford clean sheet	28%	–	–
Racing Club Warwick clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 9.2 6.0 2.6 1 9.6 12.5 7.8 3.4 2 6.5 8.1 5.2 2.2 3 2.9 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bishop's Stortford down, Racing Club Warwick across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Bishop's Stortford at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Club Warwick away: 1.00 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Bishop's Stortford, 1.28 for Racing Club Warwick. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug

BISHOP'S STORTFORD

LWWWLL0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

RACING CLUB WARWICK

DLLDWD0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1