Banbury United v Worcester City prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Banbury UnitedDrawWorcester City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Worcester City 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Worcester City just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Banbury United 35%, draw 29%, Worcester City 36%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Banbury United v Worcester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Banbury United win35%

Draw29%

Worcester City win36%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Banbury United

Worcester City

3Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · worcester city winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Worcester City a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Banbury United v Worcester City~~1.13 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~14 v 20

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banbury United win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Worcester City win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Banbury United or draw	64%	–	–
Banbury United clean sheet	32%	–	–
Worcester City clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.7 11.5 6.8 2.7 1 11.2 13.3 7.5 2.9 2 6.5 7.3 4.2 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banbury United down, Worcester City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Banbury United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Worcester City away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Banbury United, 1.16 for Worcester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~WOR 0–0 BAN · WOR 0–1 BAN · BAN 1–1 WOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

BANBURY UNITED

DLWLDW0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–0

WORCESTER CITY

LLDDLL0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	12	+23	32
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
15	Leiston	11	−4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
17	Leamington	13	−6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	−8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1