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Banbury United v Stamford

Banbury United

3–2Full time

Stamford

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Banbury United 3–2 Stamford BANBURY UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Banbury United win~~49%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.229

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Banbury United win at 49%.
2′KICK-OFF Banbury United v Stamford
6′Little has changed for our model: Banbury United 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Banbury United 0–1 Stamford
26′22′ and it is 0–1: L. Alonzi on the scoresheet for Stamford. 0–1 · 18–27–56
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Banbury United win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Stamford win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Banbury United win 18%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Banbury United 1–1 Stamford
45′HALF-TIME Banbury United 1–1 Stamford
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Banbury United 2–1 Stamford
47′SECOND HALF Banbury United 2–1 Stamford
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Banbury United 3–1 Stamford
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Banbury United 3–2 Stamford
FTFULL TIME Banbury United 3–2 Stamford
FTBanbury United 3–2 Stamford · Banbury United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Banbury United win49%

Draw27%

Stamford win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

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Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · banbury united winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make Banbury United a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · banbury united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banbury United win	49%	61%	−12
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Stamford win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	32%	−10
Banbury United or draw	76%	84%	−8
Banbury United clean sheet	41%	–	–
Stamford clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 10.1 8.6 4.0 1 13.7 12.3 5.5 2 9.9 8.7 3.9 3 4.8 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banbury United down, Stamford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Banbury United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stamford away: 0.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Banbury United, 0.90 for Stamford. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 4–0 BAN · BAN 2–0 STA · STA 2–0 BAN · BAN 1–0 STA

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

BANBURY UNITED

LDLLDL2–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

STAMFORD

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0