Banbury United v Leighton Town prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Banbury United 1–0 Leighton Town BANBURY UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Banbury United win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Banbury United win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Banbury United 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Banbury United v Leighton Town
16′Banbury United find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
16′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Banbury United 1–0 Leighton Town
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Banbury United win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Banbury United 1–0 Leighton Town
46′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
46′Banbury United ahead on 15′ through B. Nash. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Banbury United win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Banbury United 1–0 Leighton Town
64′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Banbury United win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′Banbury United are down to ten from 83′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Banbury United
88′We said Banbury United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Banbury United win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Banbury United 1–0 Leighton Town
FTBanbury United 1–0 Leighton Town · Banbury United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Banbury United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Banbury United 45%, draw 25%, Leighton Town 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Banbury United v Leighton TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Banbury United win45%

Draw25%

Leighton Town win29%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Banbury United

Leighton Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · banbury united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Banbury United a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Banbury United v Leighton Town~~1.59 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~18 v 21

~~The market · Banbury United win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Banbury United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Banbury United win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	0
Leighton Town win	29%	24%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Banbury United or draw	71%	76%	−5
Banbury United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Leighton Town clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 7.2 4.6 1 9.3 11.7 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Banbury United down, Leighton Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Banbury United at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leighton Town away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Banbury United, 1.23 for Leighton Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

BANBURY UNITED

LDLWLD1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1

LEIGHTON TOWN

LLLLLL2–3 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	11	+23	31
2	Bury Town	12	+8	30
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	+7	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Halesowen Town	10	+1	17
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
12	Redditch United	11	+1	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	−1	14
14	Leiston	10	0	12
15	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
16	Leamington	12	−4	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	12	−11	7
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5
22	Stamford	12	−29	1