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Anstey Nomads v Rushall Olympic

Anstey Nomads

3–2Full time

Rushall Olympic

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Anstey Nomads 3–2 Rushall Olympic ANSTEY NOMADS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anstey Nomads win~~41%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anstey Nomads win at 41%.
1′Rushall Olympic find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–19–59
1′KICK-OFF Anstey Nomads v Rushall Olympic
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Anstey Nomads 0–1 Rushall Olympic
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Anstey Nomads win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Rushall Olympic win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Anstey Nomads win 21%)
2′We said Anstey Nomads at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–19–59
13′We said Anstey Nomads at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–60
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 16–22–63
31′A goal for Anstey Nomads on 31′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–29–34
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Anstey Nomads 1–1 Rushall Olympic
32′Little has changed for our model: Anstey Nomads 41% before kick-off, 37% now. 1–1 · 37–29–34
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Anstey Nomads win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
42′41′ and it is 1–2: Rushall Olympic have scored. 1–2 · 13–22–65
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Anstey Nomads win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
44′We said Anstey Nomads at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–22–65
45′HALF-TIME Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic
46′SECOND HALF Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Anstey Nomads win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
54′We said Anstey Nomads at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–68
59′⚽ GOAL · 1' Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic · L. McAlinden
59′⚽ GOAL · 31' Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic · K. Bastos
59′⚽ GOAL · 41' Anstey Nomads 1–2 Rushall Olympic · K. Anderson
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Anstey Nomads 2–2 Rushall Olympic
90′Anstey Nomads level it on 81′ through C. Grantham. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–89–5
90′C. Grantham scores for Anstey Nomads on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
90′We said Anstey Nomads at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Rushall Olympic win 5%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Anstey Nomads 3–2 Rushall Olympic
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Anstey Nomads win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Anstey Nomads win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Anstey Nomads 3–2 Rushall Olympic
FTAnstey Nomads 3–2 Rushall Olympic · Anstey Nomads win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Anstey Nomads win41%

Draw22%

Rushall Olympic win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Anstey Nomads

Rushall Olympic

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · anstey nomads winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

41% The market49%

Us41%

~~Market~~49%

We make Anstey Nomads a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · anstey nomads win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anstey Nomads win	41%	49%	−8
Draw	22%	25%	−2
Rushall Olympic win	37%	26%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	66%	61%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	45%	41%	+4
Anstey Nomads or draw	63%	74%	−10
Anstey Nomads clean sheet	20%	–	–
Rushall Olympic clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 5.3 4.5 2.5 1 5.7 9.4 7.6 4.3 2 5.1 8.0 6.6 3.7 3 3.0 4.8 3.9 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anstey Nomads down, Rushall Olympic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Anstey Nomads at home: 2.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Rushall Olympic away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Anstey Nomads, 1.69 for Rushall Olympic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern Central since 2022. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

ANSTEY NOMADS

LWWDLD1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1

RUSHALL OLYMPIC

LLWLWW0–1 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 5–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0