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Alvechurch v Bury Town

Alvechurch

0–1Full time

Bury Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Alvechurch 0–1 Bury Town ALVECHURCH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alvechurch win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alvechurch win at 37%.
2′KICK-OFF Alvechurch v Bury Town
6′Much as we predicted: Alvechurch was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
45′HALF-TIME Alvechurch 0–0 Bury Town
47′SECOND HALF Alvechurch 0–0 Bury Town
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Alvechurch 0–1 Bury Town
FTFULL TIME Alvechurch 0–1 Bury Town
FTAlvechurch 0–1 Bury Town · Alvechurch win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alvechurch win37%

Draw27%

Bury Town win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alvechurch winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Alvechurch a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alvechurch win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alvechurch win	37%	45%	−7
Draw	27%	28%	0
Bury Town win	35%	28%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Alvechurch or draw	65%	72%	−8
Alvechurch clean sheet	30%	–	–
Bury Town clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.9 10.1 6.2 2.6 1 10.5 12.8 7.6 3.1 2 6.7 7.9 4.8 3 2.9 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alvechurch down, Bury Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alvechurch at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bury Town away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Alvechurch, 1.21 for Bury Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALV 1–3 BUR · BUR 0–1 ALV

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

ALVECHURCH

WWWWDD3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

BURY TOWN

WWWLWW3–0 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0