Alvechurch v Bromsgrove Sporting prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Alvechurch are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alvechurch 44%, draw 27%, Bromsgrove Sporting 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Alvechurch v Bromsgrove SportingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Alvechurch win44%

Draw27%

Bromsgrove Sporting win28%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alvechurch

Bromsgrove Sporting

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alvechurch winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

44% The market32%

Us44%

~~Market~~32%

We make Alvechurch a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alvechurch v Bromsgrove Sporting~~1.41 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 27~~6 v 3

~~The market · Alvechurch win~~32% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alvechurch win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alvechurch win	44%	32%	+12
Draw	27%	27%	0
Bromsgrove Sporting win	28%	41%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Alvechurch or draw	72%	59%	+13
Alvechurch clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bromsgrove Sporting clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.0 8.8 4.8 1 11.6 12.7 6.6 2.4 2 8.3 8.6 4.6 3 3.9 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alvechurch down, Bromsgrove Sporting across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alvechurch at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bromsgrove Sporting away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Alvechurch, 1.06 for Bromsgrove Sporting. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–4 ALV · ALV 1–2 BRO · ALV 2–1 BRO · BRO 0–2 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

ALVECHURCH

WWDDLD1–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

BROMSGROVE SPORTING

WWDDWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	11	+23	31
2	Bury Town	12	+8	30
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	+7	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Halesowen Town	10	+1	17
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
12	Redditch United	11	+1	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	−1	14
14	Leiston	10	0	12
15	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
16	Leamington	12	−4	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	12	−11	7
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5
22	Stamford	12	−29	1