Alvechurch v Anstey Nomads prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlvechurchDrawAnstey Nomads

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Alvechurch 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alvechurch are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alvechurch 43%, draw 25%, Anstey Nomads 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Alvechurch v Anstey NomadsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Alvechurch win43%

Draw25%

Anstey Nomads win32%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alvechurch

Anstey Nomads

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Alvechurch	12	+12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alvechurch winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Alvechurch a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alvechurch v Anstey Nomads~~1.54 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 19~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alvechurch win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alvechurch win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Anstey Nomads win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Alvechurch or draw	68%	–	–
Alvechurch clean sheet	29%	–	–
Anstey Nomads clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 7.5 4.9 2.1 1 9.1 11.7 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 3.7 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alvechurch down, Anstey Nomads across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,973 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 137 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alvechurch at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Anstey Nomads away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Alvechurch, 1.28 for Anstey Nomads. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ANS 2–2 ALV · ANS 3–1 ALV · ANS 0–1 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

ALVECHURCH

WDDLDD4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–4

ANSTEY NOMADS

WWDLDW3–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	13	+21	32
2	Bury Town	14	+4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	+12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	−4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	−6	13
16	Banbury United	13	−7	13
17	Leiston	11	−4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	−8	12
19	Leamington	13	−6	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1