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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › Workington v Whitby Town

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Workington v Whitby Town

Workington
1–2Full time
Whitby Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Workington 1–2 Whitby Town WORKINGTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Workington win52%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.878
The market’s Brier score0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Workington win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Workington 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Workington v Whitby Town
  4. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Workington win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  5. 45′45′ and it is 0–1: Whitby Town have scored. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  6. 45′We said Workington at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  7. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Workington 0–1 Whitby Town
  8. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Workington win: 52% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Whitby Town win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Workington win 16%)
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Workington 0–1 Whitby Town
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Workington 0–1 Whitby Town
  12. 48′We said Workington at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
  13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Workington win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  14. 54′⚽ GOAL · 45' Workington 0–1 Whitby Town · S. Rose
  15. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Workington 0–2 Whitby Town
  16. 59′Whitby Town ahead on 57′ through M. Grant. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  17. 59′We said Workington at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  18. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Workington win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  19. 61′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  20. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Workington 1–2 Whitby Town
  21. 87′L. Hunter scores for Workington on 85′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–92
  22. FTFULL TIME Workington 1–2 Whitby Town
  23. FTWorkington 1–2 Whitby Town · Workington win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Workington win52%
Draw22%
Whitby Town win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Workington

Whitby Town

3Days since last match3
4Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Workington13+121
16Whitby Town12−1513

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · workington winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
52% The market52%
Us52%
Market52%

We make Workington a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1813 OCT 17:09
Our probability · workington win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Workington win52%52%0
Draw22%24%−2
Whitby Town win26%24%+1
Over 2.5 goals60%61%−1
Both teams to score59%60%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
Workington or draw74%76%−1
Workington clean sheet29%––
Whitby Town clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.3 5.8 3.5 1 8.6 10.0 6.3 2.6 2 7.7 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.9 5.9 3.7 4 2.3 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Workington down, Whitby Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.17
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsWHI 0–0 WOR · WOR 1–2 WHI · WHI 1–3 WOR · WOR 3–1 WHI

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

WORKINGTON

WWWDDL3–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

WHITBY TOWN

WLWLLD6–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cleethorpes Town13+2330
2Redcar Athletic13+1728
3Guiseley AFC12+1425
4Avro11+1325
5Curzon Ashton11+1222
6Workington13+121
7Rylands13020
8Bury11+1119
9Gainsborough Trinity11+719
10Warrington Town11+419
11Alfreton Town13+418
12Lancaster City13−817
13Hyde United13−1014
14Ashton United11+113
15Quorn12−613
16Whitby Town12−1513
17Stockton Town13−712
18Leek Town12−111
19AFC Emley12−1310
20Bamber Bridge12−1510
21Ilkeston Town13−247
22United of Manchester11−86

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.