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Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton
Whitby Town
Curzon AshtonNon League Premier - Northern · SAT 17 OCT · Turnbull Ground
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Curzon Ashton win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Curzon Ashton was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
- 1′KICK-OFF Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton
- 5′Much as we predicted: Curzon Ashton was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
- 43′A goal for Whitby Town on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
- 43′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 59–25–16
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, 16% now
- 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Whitby Town win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Curzon Ashton win 16%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
- 46′SECOND HALF Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
- 47′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 60′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
- 72′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
- FTFULL TIME Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
- FTWhitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton · Curzon Ashton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCurzon Ashton are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Whitby Town 28%, draw 22%, Curzon Ashton 50%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Whitby Town win28%
Curzon Ashton win50%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 15
VenueTurnbull Ground
Match timeline
All events
Whitby TownMIN
Curzon AshtonEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Whitby Town
Curzon Ashton
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Curzon Ashton a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 54%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whitby Town win | 28% | 20% | +8 |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Curzon Ashton win | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Whitby Town or draw | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Whitby Town clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
| Curzon Ashton clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug
WHITBY TOWN
CURZON ASHTON
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 14 | +19 | 31 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 13 | +23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 12 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 | Avro | 12 | +11 | 25 |
| 5 | Rylands | 14 | +4 | 23 |
| 6 | Gainsborough Trinity | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 12 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 | Workington | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Lancaster City | 14 | −7 | 20 |
| 11 | Bury | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 12 | Alfreton Town | 14 | +4 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 13 | −14 | 16 |
| 14 | Hyde United | 14 | −10 | 15 |
| 15 | Ashton United | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 16 | Quorn | 13 | −6 | 14 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 14 | −8 | 12 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 12 | −1 | 11 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 13 | −13 | 11 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 13 | −16 | 10 |
| 21 | United of Manchester | 12 | −8 | 7 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 14 | −26 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Redcar Athletic
Cleethorpes Town
Guiseley AFC
Avro
Rylands
Gainsborough Trinity
Warrington Town
Workington
Lancaster City
Bury
Alfreton Town
Hyde United
Ashton United
Quorn
Stockton Town
Leek Town
AFC Emley
Bamber Bridge
United of Manchester
Ilkeston Town