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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton

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Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton

Whitby Town
1–0Full time
Curzon Ashton

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 17 OCT · Turnbull Ground

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton CURZON ASHTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Curzon Ashton win50%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.808
The market’s Brier score1.013

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Curzon Ashton win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Curzon Ashton was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton
  4. 5′Much as we predicted: Curzon Ashton was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 28–23–49
  5. 43′A goal for Whitby Town on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
  6. 43′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 59–25–16
  7. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
  8. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Whitby Town win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Curzon Ashton win 16%)
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
  12. 47′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  13. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  14. 60′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
  15. 72′We said Curzon Ashton at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
  16. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Curzon Ashton win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  17. FTFULL TIME Whitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton
  18. FTWhitby Town 1–0 Curzon Ashton · Curzon Ashton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Curzon Ashton are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Whitby Town 28%, draw 22%, Curzon Ashton 50%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Whitby Town v Curzon AshtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Whitby Town win28%
Draw22%
Curzon Ashton win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueTurnbull Ground

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Whitby Town

Curzon Ashton

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Curzon Ashton12+822
13Whitby Town13−1416

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · curzon ashton winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off
50% The market57%
Us50%
Market57%

We make Curzon Ashton a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Whitby Town v Curzon Ashton1.36 – 1.87
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 AugW2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 16 v 2213 v 7
The market · Curzon Ashton win57% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Curzon Ashton win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Whitby Town win28%20%+8
Draw22%23%−1
Curzon Ashton win50%57%−7
Over 2.5 goals62%59%+3
Both teams to score62%57%+5
Over 1.5 goals83%80%+3
Over 3.5 goals40%38%+2
Whitby Town or draw50%43%+7
Whitby Town clean sheet16%––
Curzon Ashton clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.9 7.7 6.9 4.3 2.1 1 5.7 9.7 9.2 5.7 2.7 2 3.7 6.7 6.2 3.9 3 3.1 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Whitby Town down, Curzon Ashton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug

WHITBY TOWN

LWLLDW1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–0 · 2–1

CURZON ASHTON

WWWWWL3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–5

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Redcar Athletic14+1931
2Cleethorpes Town13+2330
3Guiseley AFC12+1425
4Avro12+1125
5Rylands14+423
6Gainsborough Trinity12+922
7Curzon Ashton12+822
8Warrington Town12+522
9Workington14021
10Lancaster City14−720
11Bury11+1119
12Alfreton Town14+419
13Whitby Town13−1416
14Hyde United14−1015
15Ashton United12+114
16Quorn13−614
17Stockton Town14−812
18Leek Town12−111
19AFC Emley13−1311
20Bamber Bridge13−1610
21United of Manchester12−87
22Ilkeston Town14−267

The competition's standings before kick-off.