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Warrington Town v Lancaster City

Warrington Town

2–2Full time

Lancaster City

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Warrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City WARRINGTON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warrington Town win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.862

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warrington Town win at 43%.
3′KICK-OFF Warrington Town v Lancaster City
6′Little has changed for our model: Warrington Town 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Warrington Town 0–1 Lancaster City
45′HALF-TIME Warrington Town 0–1 Lancaster City
48′SECOND HALF Warrington Town 0–1 Lancaster City
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Warrington Town 1–1 Lancaster City
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Warrington Town 2–1 Lancaster City
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Warrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Warrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City
73′⚽ GOAL · 71' Warrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City
FTFULL TIME Warrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City
FTWarrington Town 2–2 Lancaster City · Warrington Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Warrington Town win43%

Draw24%

Lancaster City win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warrington town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Warrington Town a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · warrington town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warrington Town win	43%	48%	−4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Lancaster City win	33%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Warrington Town or draw	67%	73%	−5
Warrington Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lancaster City clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.7 4.9 2.2 1 9.0 11.1 7.5 3.4 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.6 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warrington Town down, Lancaster City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warrington Town at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lancaster City away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Warrington Town, 1.33 for Lancaster City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LAN 1–2 WAR · WAR 3–2 LAN · WAR 2–0 LAN · LAN 0–1 WAR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

WARRINGTON TOWN

WLDWLD5–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2

LANCASTER CITY

WLLWWL2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5