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Warrington Town v Gainsborough Trinity

Warrington Town

1–2Full time

Gainsborough Trinity

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Warrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gainsborough Trinity win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gainsborough Trinity win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gainsborough Trinity was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 35–25–41
1′KICK-OFF Warrington Town v Gainsborough Trinity
8′Gainsborough Trinity score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–20–66
8′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 15–20–66
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Warrington Town 0–1 Gainsborough Trinity
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
33′Warrington Town find the net on 33′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–33–36
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Warrington Town 1–1 Gainsborough Trinity
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 36% now
34′Warrington Town level it on 29′ through R. Daly. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–33–36
43′A goal for Gainsborough Trinity on 43′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–21–70
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Warrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
44′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–2 · 9–21–71
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 9–21–71
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Warrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
46′SECOND HALF Warrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
58′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
69′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
76′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
82′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Gainsborough Trinity win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
88′We published Gainsborough Trinity at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Warrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity
FTWarrington Town 1–2 Gainsborough Trinity · Gainsborough Trinity win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gainsborough Trinity are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warrington Town 35%, draw 24%, Gainsborough Trinity 41%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Warrington Town v Gainsborough TrinityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Warrington Town win35%

Draw24%

Gainsborough Trinity win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warrington Town

Gainsborough Trinity

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gainsborough trinity winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Gainsborough Trinity a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warrington Town v Gainsborough Trinity~~1.35 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 25~~7 v 5

~~The market · Gainsborough Trinity win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gainsborough Trinity win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warrington Town win	35%	33%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Gainsborough Trinity win	41%	41%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Warrington Town or draw	59%	59%	0
Warrington Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Gainsborough Trinity clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.8 9.1 6.4 3.2 1 8.3 11.4 8.5 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warrington Town down, Gainsborough Trinity across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,403 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warrington Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gainsborough Trinity away: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Warrington Town, 1.48 for Gainsborough Trinity. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WAR 0–3 GAI · GAI 2–0 WAR · GAI 1–1 WAR · WAR 0–2 GAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

WARRINGTON TOWN

WLDDWD2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY

LLWWWW0–3 · 0–2 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Avro	14	+10	28
5	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	14	−1	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7