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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › United of Manchester v Whitby Town

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United of Manchester v Whitby Town

United of Manchester
4–2Full time
Whitby Town

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 24 OCT · Broadhurst Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
United of Manchester 4–2 Whitby Town UNITED OF MANCHESTER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said United of Manchester win55%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.310
The market’s Brier score0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said United of Manchester win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: United of Manchester 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF United of Manchester v Whitby Town
  4. 33′A goal for United of Manchester on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  5. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' United of Manchester 1–0 Whitby Town
  6. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 34′We said United of Manchester at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  8. 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  9. 39′United of Manchester score on 39′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  10. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' United of Manchester 2–0 Whitby Town
  11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
  12. 40′We said United of Manchester at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME United of Manchester 2–0 Whitby Town
  14. 46′We said United of Manchester at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  16. 46′SECOND HALF United of Manchester 2–0 Whitby Town
  17. 48′Whitby Town find the net on 47′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
  18. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' United of Manchester 2–1 Whitby Town
  19. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
  20. 55′We said United of Manchester at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  21. 63′A goal for Whitby Town on 62′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 34–48–18
  22. 63′We said United of Manchester at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–48–18
  23. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' United of Manchester 2–2 Whitby Town
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 34% now
  25. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was United of Manchester win 81%)
  26. 64′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 33–49–18
  27. 69′We said United of Manchester at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–55–16
  28. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  29. 74′We said United of Manchester at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
  30. 79′We said United of Manchester at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–71–11
  31. 82′We said United of Manchester at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–77–8
  32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
  33. 85′United of Manchester score on 85′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  34. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' United of Manchester 3–2 Whitby Town
  35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
  36. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' United of Manchester win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 83%)
  37. 86′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  38. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  39. 90′United of Manchester find the net on 90′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' United of Manchester 4–2 Whitby Town
  41. 91′We said United of Manchester at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  42. 91′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  43. 95′United of Manchester ahead on 88′ through A. Le Fondre. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  44. FTFULL TIME United of Manchester 4–2 Whitby Town
  45. FTUnited of Manchester 4–2 Whitby Town · United of Manchester win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

United of Manchester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: United of Manchester 55%, draw 22%, Whitby Town 24%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on United of Manchester v Whitby TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

United of Manchester win55%
Draw22%
Whitby Town win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBroadhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

United of Manchester

Whitby Town

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Whitby Town14−1319
22United of Manchester12−87

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · united of manchester winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
55% The market54%
Us55%
Market54%

We make United of Manchester a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · United of Manchester v Whitby Town1.92 – 1.18
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 7 v 1922 v 13
The market · United of Manchester win54% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · United of Manchester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
United of Manchester win55%54%+1
Draw22%23%−1
Whitby Town win24%23%+1
Over 2.5 goals60%58%+2
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals37%38%−1
United of Manchester or draw76%77%−1
United of Manchester clean sheet31%––
Whitby Town clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.5 5.7 3.2 1 9.0 9.9 6.0 2.4 2 8.2 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.3 6.1 3.6 4 2.6 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+United of Manchester down, Whitby Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsWHI 1–3 UNI · UNI 3–1 WHI · UNI 2–3 WHI · WHI 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Aug

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

LLWLDD2–3 · 3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

WHITBY TOWN

WLLDWW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Redcar Athletic15+2034
2Cleethorpes Town14+2230
3Guiseley AFC13+1528
4Avro14+1028
5Gainsborough Trinity13+1325
6Workington15+124
7Warrington Town13+523
8Rylands14+423
9Curzon Ashton13+722
10Alfreton Town15+420
11Lancaster City15−820
12Bury11+1119
13Whitby Town14−1319
14Hyde United15−1415
15Leek Town13014
16Ashton United14−114
17Quorn13−614
18AFC Emley14−1114
19Stockton Town15−1012
20Bamber Bridge14−1710
21Ilkeston Town15−2410
22United of Manchester12−87

The competition's standings before kick-off.