United of Manchester v Quorn prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

United of ManchesterDrawQuorn

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · United of Manchester 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

United of Manchester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: United of Manchester 51%, draw 20%, Quorn 28%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on United of Manchester v QuornBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

United of Manchester win51%

Draw20%

Quorn win28%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueBroadhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

United of Manchester

Quorn

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · united of manchester winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make United of Manchester a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · United of Manchester v Quorn~~2.10 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~20 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · United of Manchester win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
United of Manchester win	51%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Quorn win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
United of Manchester or draw	72%	–	–
United of Manchester clean sheet	22%	–	–
Quorn clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.6 4.4 3.2 1 6.0 8.3 6.4 3.3 2 5.9 8.8 6.6 3.4 3 4.2 6.1 4.6 2.3 4 2.2 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+United of Manchester down, Quorn across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

United of Manchester at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Quorn away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for United of Manchester, 1.52 for Quorn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

LWLDDW3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–2

QUORN

WLWDWD2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10