United of Manchester v Lancaster City prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

United of ManchesterDrawLancaster City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · United of Manchester 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

United of Manchester are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: United of Manchester 48%, draw 23%, Lancaster City 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on United of Manchester v Lancaster CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

United of Manchester win48%

Draw23%

Lancaster City win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 17

VenueBroadhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

United of Manchester

Lancaster City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · united of manchester winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make United of Manchester a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · United of Manchester v Lancaster City~~1.70 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 20~~20 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
United of Manchester win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Lancaster City win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
United of Manchester or draw	71%	–	–
United of Manchester clean sheet	29%	–	–
Lancaster City clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 7.0 4.2 1 9.2 10.7 6.9 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.4 3 4.3 5.2 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+United of Manchester down, Lancaster City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

United of Manchester at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lancaster City away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for United of Manchester, 1.26 for Lancaster City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 LAN · LAN 0–2 UNI · LAN 0–1 UNI · UNI 2–3 LAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

LWLDDW3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–2

LANCASTER CITY

WLDWLL2–1 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10