Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › United of Manchester v AFC Emley

United of Manchester v AFC Emley

United of Manchester

1–1Full time

AFC Emley

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT · Broadhurst Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

United of Manchester 1–1 AFC Emley UNITED OF MANCHESTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said United of Manchester win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.978

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.947

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said United of Manchester win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: United of Manchester was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF United of Manchester v AFC Emley
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′A goal for AFC Emley on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–27–56
45′We said United of Manchester at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–27–56
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' United of Manchester 0–1 AFC Emley
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 17% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' AFC Emley win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was United of Manchester win 17%)
45′HALF-TIME United of Manchester 0–1 AFC Emley
46′SECOND HALF United of Manchester 0–1 AFC Emley
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
51′We said United of Manchester at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
59′59′ and it is 1–1: United of Manchester have scored. 1–1 · 37–44–19
59′⚽ GOAL · 46' United of Manchester 1–1 AFC Emley · E. Rinor
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' United of Manchester 1–1 AFC Emley
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 37% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was AFC Emley win 19%)
60′We said United of Manchester at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–45–19
61′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 35–46–19
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
64′We said United of Manchester at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–49–18
90′We said United of Manchester at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–90–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' United of Manchester win: 55% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME United of Manchester 1–1 AFC Emley
FTUnited of Manchester 1–1 AFC Emley · United of Manchester win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

United of Manchester win55%

Draw21%

AFC Emley win23%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueBroadhurst Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

United of Manchester

AFC Emley

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · united of manchester winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make United of Manchester a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · united of manchester win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
United of Manchester win	55%	55%	0
Draw	21%	23%	−2
AFC Emley win	23%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
United of Manchester or draw	77%	78%	−2
United of Manchester clean sheet	31%	–	–
AFC Emley clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.4 5.5 3.1 1 8.9 9.8 5.8 2.3 2 8.3 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.4 6.2 3.6 4 2.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+United of Manchester down, AFC Emley across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

United of Manchester at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Emley away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for United of Manchester, 1.17 for AFC Emley. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Northern since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

DLLWLD1–1 · 2–3 · 3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

AFC EMLEY

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6