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Stockton Town v United of Manchester

Stockton Town

2–2Full time

United of Manchester

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Stockton Town 2–2 United of Manchester STOCKTON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockton Town win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockton Town win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Stockton Town v United of Manchester
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Stockton Town 0–1 United of Manchester
45′HALF-TIME Stockton Town 0–1 United of Manchester
46′SECOND HALF Stockton Town 0–1 United of Manchester
48′🟥 RED CARD · 45' S. Thompson · Stockton Town
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Stockton Town 1–1 United of Manchester
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Stockton Town 1–2 United of Manchester
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Stockton Town 2–2 United of Manchester
FTFULL TIME Stockton Town 2–2 United of Manchester
FTStockton Town 2–2 United of Manchester · Stockton Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stockton Town win45%

Draw24%

United of Manchester win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stockton town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Stockton Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stockton Town win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
United of Manchester win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Stockton Town or draw	69%	70%	−1
Stockton Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
United of Manchester clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.2 7.3 4.6 2.0 1 8.9 10.9 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stockton Town down, United of Manchester across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stockton Town at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). United of Manchester away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Stockton Town, 1.32 for United of Manchester. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–1 STO · STO 2–3 UNI · UNI 0–1 STO · STO 1–0 UNI

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

STOCKTON TOWN

LLDWLW3–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

LDLLWL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5