Stockton Town v AFC Emley prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Stockton Town 1–3 AFC Emley STOCKTON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stockton Town win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.933

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.988

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stockton Town win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stockton Town was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
1′KICK-OFF Stockton Town v AFC Emley
6′Much as we predicted: Stockton Town was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
18′AFC Emley score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 25–25–49
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Stockton Town 0–1 AFC Emley
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Stockton Town win: 54% at kick-off, 25% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' AFC Emley win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Stockton Town win 25%)
19′We said Stockton Town at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–25–50
21′We said Stockton Town at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Stockton Town win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
24′AFC Emley find the net on 24′. 0–2. 0–2 · 9–15–77
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Stockton Town 0–2 AFC Emley
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Stockton Town win: 54% at kick-off, 9% now
25′We said Stockton Town at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–77
33′A goal for AFC Emley on 33′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 2–5–93
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Stockton Town 0–3 AFC Emley
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Stockton Town win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
34′We said Stockton Town at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–3 · 2–5–93
34′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 2–5–93
45′HALF-TIME Stockton Town 0–3 AFC Emley
46′SECOND HALF Stockton Town 0–3 AFC Emley
81′Stockton Town score on 81′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Stockton Town 1–3 AFC Emley
82′A red card for Stockton Town on 82′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 0–1–99
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Stockton Town
84′Stockton Town score on 79′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Stockton Town 1–3 AFC Emley
FTStockton Town 1–3 AFC Emley · Stockton Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stockton Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stockton Town 54%, draw 22%, AFC Emley 23%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Stockton Town v AFC EmleyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stockton Town win54%

Draw22%

AFC Emley win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stockton Town

AFC Emley

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Stockton Town	14	−8	12
19	AFC Emley	13	−13	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stockton town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Stockton Town a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stockton Town v AFC Emley~~1.81 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~17 v 19

~~The market · Stockton Town win~~56% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stockton Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stockton Town win	54%	56%	−2
Draw	22%	23%	−1
AFC Emley win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Stockton Town or draw	77%	79%	−2
Stockton Town clean sheet	34%	–	–
AFC Emley clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 6.3 3.3 1 10.2 10.5 5.8 2.2 2 8.9 9.6 5.2 3 5.4 5.8 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stockton Town down, AFC Emley across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,393 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 142 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Stockton Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Emley away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Stockton Town, 1.10 for AFC Emley. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

STOCKTON TOWN

DWLWDL1–1 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

AFC EMLEY

LLLLLD0–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	14	+19	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	12	+11	25
5	Rylands	14	+4	23
6	Gainsborough Trinity	12	+9	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	+8	22
8	Warrington Town	12	+5	22
9	Workington	14	0	21
10	Lancaster City	14	−7	20
11	Bury	11	+11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	+4	19
13	Whitby Town	13	−14	16
14	Hyde United	14	−10	15
15	Ashton United	12	+1	14
16	Quorn	13	−6	14
17	Stockton Town	14	−8	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	13	−13	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	−16	10
21	United of Manchester	12	−8	7
22	Ilkeston Town	14	−26	7