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Rylands v Curzon Ashton

Rylands

5–1Full time

Curzon Ashton

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Rylands 5–1 Curzon Ashton RYLANDS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rylands win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rylands win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rylands was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Rylands v Curzon Ashton
17′A goal for Rylands on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rylands 1–0 Curzon Ashton
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Rylands win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
18′We published Rylands at 39%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Rylands win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
40′40′ and it is 2–0: Rylands have scored. 2–0 · 90–8–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rylands 2–0 Curzon Ashton
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Rylands win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
41′We published Rylands at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Rylands 2–0 Curzon Ashton
46′SECOND HALF Rylands 2–0 Curzon Ashton
54′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rylands 2–0 Curzon Ashton · B. Hardcastle
54′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rylands 2–0 Curzon Ashton · G. Waring
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Rylands 3–0 Curzon Ashton
57′Rylands find the net on 56′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Rylands win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
58′We published Rylands at 39%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Rylands 4–0 Curzon Ashton
87′C. Costello scores for Rylands on 70′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′We published Rylands at 39%. Our model now makes it 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′90′ and it is 5–0: S. Holder on the scoresheet for Rylands. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Rylands 5–0 Curzon Ashton
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Rylands 5–1 Curzon Ashton
FTFULL TIME Rylands 5–1 Curzon Ashton
FTRylands 5–1 Curzon Ashton · Rylands win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Rylands win39%

Draw24%

Curzon Ashton win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rylands

Curzon Ashton

3Days since last match3

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
7	Rylands	13	0	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rylands winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Rylands a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rylands win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rylands win	39%	39%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Curzon Ashton win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Rylands or draw	64%	65%	−1
Rylands clean sheet	25%	–	–
Curzon Ashton clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.7 8.3 5.6 2.6 1 8.7 11.3 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rylands down, Curzon Ashton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Rylands at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Curzon Ashton away: 2.40 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Rylands, 1.40 for Curzon Ashton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Northern since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

RYLANDS

WDWWDL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 3–3 · 0–3

CURZON ASHTON

WWWWWW4–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6