Redcar Athletic v Guiseley AFC prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Redcar AthleticDrawGuiseley AFC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Redcar Athletic 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Redcar Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Redcar Athletic 53%, draw 23%, Guiseley AFC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Redcar Athletic v Guiseley AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Redcar Athletic win53%

Draw23%

Guiseley AFC win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Redcar Athletic

Guiseley AFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redcar athletic winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Redcar Athletic a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Redcar Athletic v Guiseley AFC~~1.78 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 28~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Redcar Athletic win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Guiseley AFC win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Redcar Athletic or draw	75%	–	–
Redcar Athletic clean sheet	33%	–	–
Guiseley AFC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 6.6 3.5 1 10.1 10.5 6.1 2.3 2 8.6 9.5 5.3 2.0 3 5.1 5.6 3.2 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Redcar Athletic down, Guiseley AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Redcar Athletic at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guiseley AFC away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Redcar Athletic, 1.13 for Guiseley AFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

REDCAR ATHLETIC

DWLWWW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

GUISELEY AFC

WWLWWW4–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10