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Redcar Athletic v Avro

Redcar Athletic

3–1Full time

Avro

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Redcar Athletic 3–1 Avro REDCAR ATHLETIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Redcar Athletic win~~52%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.353

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.461

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Redcar Athletic win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Redcar Athletic 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–20–28
1′KICK-OFF Redcar Athletic v Avro
33′Redcar Athletic find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Redcar Athletic 1–0 Avro
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
39′We said Redcar Athletic at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
41′A goal for Redcar Athletic on 41′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Redcar Athletic 2–0 Avro
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 91% now
42′We said Redcar Athletic at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 2–0 · 91–6–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Redcar Athletic 2–0 Avro
46′SECOND HALF Redcar Athletic 2–0 Avro
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Redcar Athletic 2–1 Avro
49′48′ and it is 2–1: Avro have scored. 2–1 · 74–18–8
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
52′We said Redcar Athletic at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
58′⚽ GOAL · 33' Redcar Athletic 2–1 Avro · B. Fewster
58′⚽ GOAL · 41' Redcar Athletic 2–1 Avro · B. Fewster
58′⚽ GOAL · 48' Redcar Athletic 2–1 Avro · B. Lowe
71′PENALTY MISSED · 71' Avro
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Redcar Athletic 3–1 Avro
74′PENALTY MISSED · 71' D. Fitzpatrick · Avro
90′Redcar Athletic ahead on 72′ through B. Fewster. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′We said Redcar Athletic at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Redcar Athletic win: 52% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Redcar Athletic 3–1 Avro
FTRedcar Athletic 3–1 Avro · Redcar Athletic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Redcar Athletic win52%

Draw20%

Avro win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Redcar Athletic

Avro

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
4	Avro	11	+13	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redcar athletic winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

52% The market45%

Us52%

~~Market~~45%

We make Redcar Athletic a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · redcar athletic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Redcar Athletic win	52%	45%	+7
Draw	20%	25%	−6
Avro win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	73%	58%	+15
Both teams to score	70%	61%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	89%	78%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	53%	38%	+15
Redcar Athletic or draw	71%	70%	+1
Redcar Athletic clean sheet	20%	–	–
Avro clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 3.8 2.9 1 5.1 7.5 6.1 3.3 2 5.3 8.3 6.6 3.6 3 3.9 6.2 4.9 2.7 4 2.2 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Redcar Athletic down, Avro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Redcar Athletic at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Avro away: 2.60 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Redcar Athletic, 1.62 for Avro. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Northern since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

REDCAR ATHLETIC

WWDWLW2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 5–0

AVRO

DWWWWL4–4 · 5–3 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6