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Quorn v Workington

Quorn

3–0Full time

Workington

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Quorn 3–0 Workington QUORN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quorn win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quorn win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Quorn v Workington
6′Little has changed for our model: Quorn 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
22′⚽ GOAL · 20' Quorn 1–0 Workington
26′Quorn ahead on 25′ through T. Pennant. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–15
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Quorn win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
45′HALF-TIME Quorn 1–0 Workington
47′SECOND HALF Quorn 1–0 Workington
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Quorn 2–0 Workington
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Quorn 3–0 Workington
FTFULL TIME Quorn 3–0 Workington
FTQuorn 3–0 Workington · Quorn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Quorn win40%

Draw22%

Workington win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quorn winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Quorn a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · quorn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quorn win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Workington win	38%	40%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	68%	68%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Quorn or draw	62%	60%	+2
Quorn clean sheet	18%	–	–
Workington clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.9 5.4 4.5 2.6 1 5.6 8.8 7.7 4.5 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quorn down, Workington across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Quorn at home: 1.60 scored, 3.20 conceded a game (last 5). Workington away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Quorn, 1.74 for Workington. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

QUORN

DLWLWD2–2 · 3–6 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 2–2

WORKINGTON

WWWWDD3–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5