Quorn v Bury prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Bury are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Quorn 32%, draw 21%, Bury 47%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Quorn v BuryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Quorn win32%

Draw21%

Bury win47%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quorn

Bury

7Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Bury	11	+11	19
17	Quorn	13	−6	14

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bury FC fans say bumper FA Cup crowd 'meant everything'BBC Sport · 17 Oct 16:03 · Bury

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Bury a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quorn v Bury~~1.57 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~17 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quorn win	32%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Bury win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Quorn or draw	53%	–	–
Quorn clean sheet	15%	–	–
Bury clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.9 6.2 5.7 3.7 1 5.0 8.8 8.6 5.6 2.8 2 3.7 7.0 6.6 4.3 2.1 3 3.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quorn down, Bury across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,401 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Quorn at home: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bury away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Quorn, 1.95 for Bury. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 25 Aug

QUORN

WLWDWD2–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

BURY

LWLWLW0–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
5	Avro	13	+9	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	13	0	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7