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Leek Town v Ashton United

Leek Town

2–2Full time

Ashton United

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Leek Town 2–2 Ashton United LEEK TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leek Town win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.857

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leek Town win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF Leek Town v Ashton United
5′Much as we predicted: Leek Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Leek Town 0–1 Ashton United · N. Okome
26′Ashton United find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Leek Town win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Ashton United win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Leek Town win 15%)
30′⚽ GOAL · 27' Leek Town 0–2 Ashton United
45′HALF-TIME Leek Town 0–2 Ashton United
47′SECOND HALF Leek Town 0–2 Ashton United
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Leek Town 1–2 Ashton United
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Leek Town 2–2 Ashton United
FTFULL TIME Leek Town 2–2 Ashton United
FTLeek Town 2–2 Ashton United · Leek Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leek Town win42%

Draw25%

Ashton United win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leek town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Leek Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leek town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leek Town win	42%	41%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Ashton United win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Leek Town or draw	67%	66%	+1
Leek Town clean sheet	28%	–	–
Ashton United clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 8.4 5.2 2.2 1 9.7 11.5 7.5 3.2 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leek Town down, Ashton United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leek Town at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ashton United away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Leek Town, 1.28 for Ashton United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ASH 0–1 LEE · LEE 2–0 ASH · LEE 3–1 ASH · ASH 1–0 LEE

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

LEEK TOWN

DLLLWD4–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–3

ASHTON UNITED

DDLLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5