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Lancaster City v Stockton Town

Lancaster City

1–0Full time

Stockton Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Lancaster City 1–0 Stockton Town LANCASTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lancaster City win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lancaster City win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lancaster City was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Lancaster City v Stockton Town
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lancaster City win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Lancaster City 0–0 Stockton Town
46′SECOND HALF Lancaster City 0–0 Stockton Town
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lancaster City win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lancaster City 1–0 Stockton Town
52′51′ and it is 1–0: Lancaster City have scored. 1–0 · 72–21–7
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Lancaster City win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Lancaster City win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
53′We published Lancaster City at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–21–7
57′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lancaster City 1–0 Stockton Town · D. Lawson
59′We published Lancaster City at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Lancaster City 1–1 Stockton Town
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Stockton Town
90′We published Lancaster City at 40%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Lancaster City win: 40% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Lancaster City 1–0 Stockton Town
FTLancaster City 1–0 Stockton Town · Lancaster City win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Lancaster City win40%

Draw24%

Stockton Town win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lancaster City

Stockton Town

3Days since last match3

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lancaster city winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Lancaster City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lancaster city win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lancaster City win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−1
Stockton Town win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−3
Lancaster City or draw	64%	64%	0
Lancaster City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Stockton Town clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.8 8.5 5.6 2.6 1 9.0 11.4 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.4 5.7 2.6 3 3.1 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lancaster City down, Stockton Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lancaster City at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stockton Town away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Lancaster City, 1.37 for Stockton Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STO 1–1 LAN · LAN 1–2 STO · STO 1–0 LAN · LAN 2–1 STO

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

LANCASTER CITY

LLWWLD0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–5 · 2–2

STOCKTON TOWN

LDWLWD0–2 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6