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Lancaster City v Leek Town

Lancaster City

1–2Full time

Leek Town

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Lancaster City 1–2 Leek Town LANCASTER CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lancaster City win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lancaster City win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lancaster City 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Lancaster City v Leek Town
8′Little has changed for our model: Lancaster City 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
28′A goal for Leek Town on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
28′We said Lancaster City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Lancaster City 0–1 Leek Town
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Lancaster City win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Leek Town win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Lancaster City win 16%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
33′We said Lancaster City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Lancaster City win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
42′Lancaster City score on 42′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–36–28
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Lancaster City 1–1 Leek Town
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Lancaster City win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
45′Leek Town find the net on 44′. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–24–65
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 11–24–65
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Lancaster City 1–2 Leek Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lancaster City win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Lancaster City 1–2 Leek Town
46′SECOND HALF Lancaster City 1–2 Leek Town
51′We said Lancaster City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–67
68′We said Lancaster City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Lancaster City win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Lancaster City 1–2 Leek Town
FTLancaster City 1–2 Leek Town · Lancaster City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lancaster City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lancaster City 43%, draw 24%, Leek Town 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lancaster City v Leek TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lancaster City win43%

Draw24%

Leek Town win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lancaster City

Leek Town

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lancaster City	14	−7	20
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lancaster city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Lancaster City a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lancaster City v Leek Town~~1.55 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 11~~10 v 18

~~The market · Lancaster City win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lancaster City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lancaster City win	43%	43%	0
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Leek Town win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Lancaster City or draw	67%	68%	−1
Lancaster City clean sheet	27%	–	–
Leek Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 7.9 5.0 2.2 1 9.2 11.2 7.5 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.6 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lancaster City down, Leek Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,393 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 142 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lancaster City at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Leek Town away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Lancaster City, 1.31 for Leek Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAN 2–1 LEE · LEE 0–1 LAN · LEE 2–1 LAN · LAN 0–1 LEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Aug

LANCASTER CITY

LWWLDW0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–5 · 2–2 · 1–0

LEEK TOWN

LLLWDD2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	14	+19	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	12	+11	25
5	Rylands	14	+4	23
6	Gainsborough Trinity	12	+9	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	+8	22
8	Warrington Town	12	+5	22
9	Workington	14	0	21
10	Lancaster City	14	−7	20
11	Bury	11	+11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	+4	19
13	Whitby Town	13	−14	16
14	Hyde United	14	−10	15
15	Ashton United	12	+1	14
16	Quorn	13	−6	14
17	Stockton Town	14	−8	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	13	−13	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	−16	10
21	United of Manchester	12	−8	7
22	Ilkeston Town	14	−26	7