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Ilkeston Town v Redcar Athletic

Ilkeston Town

0–5Full time

Redcar Athletic

Non League Premier - Northern · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Ilkeston Town 0–5 Redcar Athletic REDCAR ATHLETIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Redcar Athletic win~~48%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Redcar Athletic win at 48%.
2′KICK-OFF Ilkeston Town v Redcar Athletic
5′Little has changed for our model: Redcar Athletic 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ilkeston Town 0–1 Redcar Athletic
45′HALF-TIME Ilkeston Town 0–1 Redcar Athletic
46′SECOND HALF Ilkeston Town 0–1 Redcar Athletic
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ilkeston Town 0–2 Redcar Athletic
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ilkeston Town 0–3 Redcar Athletic
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ilkeston Town 0–4 Redcar Athletic
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Ilkeston Town 0–5 Redcar Athletic
FTFULL TIME Ilkeston Town 0–5 Redcar Athletic
FTIlkeston Town 0–5 Redcar Athletic · Redcar Athletic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ilkeston Town win28%

Draw24%

Redcar Athletic win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redcar athletic winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market59%

Us48%

~~Market~~59%

We make Redcar Athletic a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · redcar athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ilkeston Town win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	24%	22%	+1
Redcar Athletic win	48%	59%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Ilkeston Town or draw	52%	41%	+10
Ilkeston Town clean sheet	20%	–	–
Redcar Athletic clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 9.9 7.8 4.4 1 7.3 11.0 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 4.2 6.7 5.5 3.1 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ilkeston Town down, Redcar Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,373 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ilkeston Town at home: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Redcar Athletic away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Ilkeston Town, 1.66 for Redcar Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

ILKESTON TOWN

LLLLLL0–7 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

REDCAR ATHLETIC

WWWDWL3–2 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	+20	27
2	Avro	10	+14	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	+12	25
4	Guiseley AFC	11	+13	22
5	Workington	12	+4	21
6	Rylands	12	+3	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	+10	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	+5	18
9	Warrington Town	10	+4	18
10	Bury	10	+10	16
11	Gainsborough Trinity	10	+6	16
12	Lancaster City	12	−8	16
13	Hyde United	12	−8	14
14	Ashton United	10	+1	12
15	Whitby Town	11	−15	12
16	Stockton Town	12	−7	11
17	Leek Town	11	−1	10
18	Quorn	11	−9	10
19	AFC Emley	11	−12	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	−15	9
21	Ilkeston Town	12	−19	7
22	United of Manchester	10	−8	5