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Guiseley AFC v Cleethorpes Town

Guiseley AFC

2–1Full time

Cleethorpes Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Guiseley AFC 2–1 Cleethorpes Town CLEETHORPES TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cleethorpes Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.625

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cleethorpes Town win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cleethorpes Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Guiseley AFC v Cleethorpes Town
7′Guiseley AFC find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–16
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Guiseley AFC 1–0 Cleethorpes Town
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Cleethorpes Town win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Guiseley AFC win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Cleethorpes Town win 38%)
8′We said Cleethorpes Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–21–16
18′We said Cleethorpes Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
42′We said Cleethorpes Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Guiseley AFC 1–0 Cleethorpes Town
46′SECOND HALF Guiseley AFC 1–0 Cleethorpes Town
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Cleethorpes Town win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
63′We said Cleethorpes Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′A goal for Cleethorpes Town on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–58–21
68′We said Cleethorpes Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 20–58–21
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Guiseley AFC 1–1 Cleethorpes Town
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Cleethorpes Town win: 38% at kick-off, 21% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Guiseley AFC win 79%)
72′Guiseley AFC score on 72′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–2
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Guiseley AFC 2–1 Cleethorpes Town
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Cleethorpes Town win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Guiseley AFC win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 63%)
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–16–2
FTFULL TIME Guiseley AFC 2–1 Cleethorpes Town
FTGuiseley AFC 2–1 Cleethorpes Town · Cleethorpes Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cleethorpes Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Guiseley AFC 36%, draw 26%, Cleethorpes Town 38%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Guiseley AFC v Cleethorpes TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Guiseley AFC win36%

Draw26%

Cleethorpes Town win38%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guiseley AFC

Cleethorpes Town

3Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cleethorpes town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 20 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Cleethorpes Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guiseley AFC v Cleethorpes Town~~1.28 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 30~~3 v 2

~~The market · Cleethorpes Town win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cleethorpes Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guiseley AFC win	36%	43%	−7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Cleethorpes Town win	38%	30%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Guiseley AFC or draw	62%	70%	−8
Guiseley AFC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Cleethorpes Town clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.3 10.2 6.5 2.9 1 9.8 12.0 8.2 3.7 2 6.0 7.8 5.2 2.3 3 2.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guiseley AFC down, Cleethorpes Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,401 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guiseley AFC at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cleethorpes Town away: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Guiseley AFC, 1.33 for Cleethorpes Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CLE 2–1 GUI · GUI 1–1 CLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 28 Aug

GUISELEY AFC

LWWLWW1–2 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

CLEETHORPES TOWN

WWDDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
5	Avro	13	+9	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	13	0	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7