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Gainsborough Trinity v Ilkeston Town

Gainsborough Trinity

3–1Full time

Ilkeston Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Gainsborough Trinity 3–1 Ilkeston Town GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gainsborough Trinity win~~56%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gainsborough Trinity win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gainsborough Trinity 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Gainsborough Trinity v Ilkeston Town
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Gainsborough Trinity 1–0 Ilkeston Town
4′3′ and it is 1–0: Gainsborough Trinity have scored. 1–0 · 79–14–7
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Gainsborough Trinity win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
5′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Gainsborough Trinity 1–1 Ilkeston Town
11′Ilkeston Town find the net on 10′. 1–1. 1–1 · 54–25–21
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Gainsborough Trinity win: 56% at kick-off, 54% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Gainsborough Trinity win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
44′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
45′HALF-TIME Gainsborough Trinity 1–1 Ilkeston Town
46′SECOND HALF Gainsborough Trinity 1–1 Ilkeston Town
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 41–40–19
54′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–18
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Gainsborough Trinity win 38%)
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Gainsborough Trinity 2–1 Ilkeston Town
58′A goal for Gainsborough Trinity on 57′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Gainsborough Trinity win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Gainsborough Trinity win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
60′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–3
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–14–3
61′⚽ GOAL · 2' Gainsborough Trinity 2–1 Ilkeston Town · E. F. Mulhern
61′⚽ GOAL · 10' Gainsborough Trinity 2–1 Ilkeston Town · A. Dwyer
61′⚽ GOAL · 57' Gainsborough Trinity 2–1 Ilkeston Town · R. Kokkinos
67′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
90′We said Gainsborough Trinity at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′90′ and it is 3–1: Gainsborough Trinity have scored. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Gainsborough Trinity win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Gainsborough Trinity 3–1 Ilkeston Town
FTFULL TIME Gainsborough Trinity 3–1 Ilkeston Town
FTGainsborough Trinity 3–1 Ilkeston Town · Gainsborough Trinity win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Gainsborough Trinity win56%

Draw22%

Ilkeston Town win21%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gainsborough Trinity

Ilkeston Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gainsborough trinity winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

56% The market66%

Us56%

~~Market~~66%

We make Gainsborough Trinity a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gainsborough trinity win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gainsborough Trinity win	56%	66%	−10
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Ilkeston Town win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−6
Gainsborough Trinity or draw	79%	86%	−7
Gainsborough Trinity clean sheet	36%	–	–
Ilkeston Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 6.2 3.1 1 10.8 10.4 5.5 2 9.6 9.6 4.9 3 5.9 5.9 3.0 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gainsborough Trinity down, Ilkeston Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gainsborough Trinity at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ilkeston Town away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Gainsborough Trinity, 1.03 for Ilkeston Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAI 0–0 ILK · ILK 0–1 GAI · GAI 0–0 ILK · ILK 2–2 GAI

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY

DWLLWW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 6–2 · 2–1

ILKESTON TOWN

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6