Gainsborough Trinity v Curzon Ashton prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gainsborough TrinityDrawCurzon Ashton

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Gainsborough Trinity 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gainsborough Trinity are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gainsborough Trinity 46%, draw 23%, Curzon Ashton 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Gainsborough Trinity v Curzon AshtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gainsborough Trinity win46%

Draw23%

Curzon Ashton win31%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gainsborough Trinity

Curzon Ashton

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gainsborough trinity winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Gainsborough Trinity a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gainsborough Trinity v Curzon Ashton~~1.66 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 22~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gainsborough Trinity win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Curzon Ashton win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Gainsborough Trinity or draw	69%	–	–
Gainsborough Trinity clean sheet	27%	–	–
Curzon Ashton clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 7.2 4.5 1 8.9 10.7 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.9 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gainsborough Trinity down, Curzon Ashton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Gainsborough Trinity at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Curzon Ashton away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Gainsborough Trinity, 1.31 for Curzon Ashton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

GAINSBOROUGH TRINITY

LWWWWW0–2 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–1

CURZON ASHTON

WWWWLL2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10