Curzon Ashton v United of Manchester prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Curzon Ashton are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Curzon Ashton 50%, draw 22%, United of Manchester 28%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Curzon Ashton v United of ManchesterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Curzon Ashton win50%

Draw22%

United of Manchester win28%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTameside Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Curzon Ashton

United of Manchester

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · curzon ashton winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · postponed, not graded

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Curzon Ashton a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Curzon Ashton v United of Manchester~~1.83 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~9 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Curzon Ashton win

Published at 51%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Curzon Ashton win	50%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
United of Manchester win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Curzon Ashton or draw	72%	–	–
Curzon Ashton clean sheet	27%	–	–
United of Manchester clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 6.0 3.8 1 8.2 10.0 6.7 3.0 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.4 5.7 3.7 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Curzon Ashton down, United of Manchester across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,401 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Curzon Ashton at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). United of Manchester away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Curzon Ashton, 1.32 for United of Manchester. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–3 CUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 29 Aug

CURZON ASHTON

WWWWLL2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 0–1

UNITED OF MANCHESTER

LLWLDD2–3 · 3–4 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Gainsborough Trinity	13	+13	25
5	Avro	13	+9	25
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Warrington Town	13	+5	23
8	Rylands	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	15	−8	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	14	−13	19
14	Hyde United	15	−14	15
15	Leek Town	13	0	14
16	Ashton United	13	0	14
17	Quorn	13	−6	14
18	AFC Emley	14	−11	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
21	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10
22	United of Manchester	12	−8	7