Bury v Leek Town prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bury are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bury 55%, draw 22%, Leek Town 24%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Bury v Leek TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Bury win55%

Draw22%

Leek Town win24%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueGigg Lane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bury

Leek Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Bury	11	+11	19
16	Leek Town	13	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bury winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Bury a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bury v Leek Town~~1.92 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 14~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bury win

Published at 54%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bury win	55%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Leek Town win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Bury or draw	76%	–	–
Bury clean sheet	31%	–	–
Leek Town clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.5 5.7 3.2 1 9.1 9.8 5.9 2.3 2 8.3 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.3 6.1 3.6 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bury down, Leek Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,406 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Bury at home: 3.00 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Leek Town away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Bury, 1.18 for Leek Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 25 Aug

BURY

LWLWLW0–1 · 7–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

LEEK TOWN

LLWDDW1–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	15	+20	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	+22	30
3	Guiseley AFC	13	+15	28
4	Gainsborough Trinity	14	+14	28
5	Avro	14	+10	28
6	Workington	15	+1	24
7	Rylands	14	+4	23
8	Warrington Town	14	+4	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	+7	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	+4	20
11	Lancaster City	16	−9	20
12	Bury	11	+11	19
13	Whitby Town	15	−15	19
14	AFC Emley	15	−10	17
15	Hyde United	15	−14	15
16	Leek Town	13	0	14
17	Ashton United	14	−1	14
18	Quorn	13	−6	14
19	Stockton Town	15	−10	12
20	United of Manchester	13	−6	10
21	Bamber Bridge	14	−17	10
22	Ilkeston Town	15	−24	10