Bamber Bridge v Workington prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bamber Bridge 1–2 Workington BAMBER BRIDGE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bamber Bridge win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bamber Bridge win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bamber Bridge was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Bamber Bridge v Workington
7′Much as we predicted: Bamber Bridge was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
45′HALF-TIME Bamber Bridge 0–0 Workington
46′SECOND HALF Bamber Bridge 0–0 Workington
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bamber Bridge win 32%)
54′Workington score on 54′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–69
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Bamber Bridge 0–1 Workington
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Bamber Bridge win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Workington win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
55′We said Bamber Bridge at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
68′We said Bamber Bridge at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
74′Workington find the net on 73′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Bamber Bridge 0–2 Workington
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Bamber Bridge win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′A goal for Bamber Bridge on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bamber Bridge 1–2 Workington
FTFULL TIME Bamber Bridge 1–2 Workington
FTBamber Bridge 1–2 Workington · Bamber Bridge win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bamber Bridge just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bamber Bridge 40%, draw 23%, Workington 37%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Bamber Bridge v WorkingtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bamber Bridge win40%

Draw23%

Workington win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bamber Bridge

Workington

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Northern

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Workington	14	0	21
20	Bamber Bridge	13	−16	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bamber bridge winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make Bamber Bridge a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bamber Bridge v Workington~~1.62 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~20 v 9

~~The market · Bamber Bridge win~~34% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bamber Bridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bamber Bridge win	40%	34%	+6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Workington win	37%	42%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Bamber Bridge or draw	63%	58%	+5
Bamber Bridge clean sheet	21%	–	–
Workington clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 6.8 5.1 2.6 1 7.1 10.2 8.0 4.2 2 5.5 8.4 6.4 3.4 3 3.0 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bamber Bridge down, Workington across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,393 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 142 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 7 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bamber Bridge at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Workington away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Bamber Bridge, 1.56 for Workington. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~WOR 1–3 BAM · BAM 1–2 WOR · BAM 1–2 WOR · WOR 2–3 BAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern this season · since 31 Aug

BAMBER BRIDGE

LWLLDL1–3 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 0–1

WORKINGTON

WWDDLL3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Redcar Athletic	14	+19	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	12	+11	25
5	Rylands	14	+4	23
6	Gainsborough Trinity	12	+9	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	+8	22
8	Warrington Town	12	+5	22
9	Workington	14	0	21
10	Lancaster City	14	−7	20
11	Bury	11	+11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	+4	19
13	Whitby Town	13	−14	16
14	Hyde United	14	−10	15
15	Ashton United	12	+1	14
16	Quorn	13	−6	14
17	Stockton Town	14	−8	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	13	−13	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	−16	10
21	United of Manchester	12	−8	7
22	Ilkeston Town	14	−26	7