Home › Football › Non League Premier - Northern › Bamber Bridge v Warrington Town

Bamber Bridge v Warrington Town

Bamber Bridge

0–1Full time

Warrington Town

Non League Premier - Northern · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town BAMBER BRIDGE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bamber Bridge win~~40%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.603

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.437

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bamber Bridge win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bamber Bridge was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Bamber Bridge v Warrington Town
8′8′ and it is 0–1: Warrington Town have scored. 0–1 · 19–20–61
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Bamber Bridge win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Warrington Town win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bamber Bridge win 19%)
10′We said Bamber Bridge at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–20–61
31′We said Bamber Bridge at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
45′HALF-TIME Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town
45′⚽ GOAL · 8' Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town · C. Edwards
46′SECOND HALF Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Bamber Bridge win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
75′We said Bamber Bridge at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–17–81
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bamber Bridge win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
90′A red card for Bamber Bridge on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Bamber Bridge
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' A. Cookson · Bamber Bridge
FTFULL TIME Bamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town
FTBamber Bridge 0–1 Warrington Town · Bamber Bridge win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Bamber Bridge win40%

Draw23%

Warrington Town win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bamber Bridge

Warrington Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bamber bridge winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market30%

Us40%

~~Market~~30%

We make Bamber Bridge a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bamber bridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bamber Bridge win	40%	30%	+10
Draw	23%	24%	−2
Warrington Town win	37%	46%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	43%	−2
Bamber Bridge or draw	63%	54%	+9
Bamber Bridge clean sheet	21%	–	–
Warrington Town clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 3.9 6.6 5.0 2.7 1 6.9 10.0 8.0 4.2 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.4 3 3.0 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bamber Bridge down, Warrington Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Non League Premier - Northern matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Northern matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bamber Bridge at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Warrington Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Bamber Bridge, 1.59 for Warrington Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WAR 0–2 BAM · BAM 1–2 WAR · WAR 1–0 BAM · BAM 3–2 WAR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Northern

BAMBER BRIDGE

DLWLLD4–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 2–4 · 0–0

WARRINGTON TOWN

LDWLDD0–4 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	+23	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	+17	28
3	Guiseley AFC	12	+14	25
4	Avro	11	+13	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	+12	22
6	Workington	13	+1	21
7	Rylands	13	0	20
8	Bury	11	+11	19
9	Gainsborough Trinity	11	+7	19
10	Warrington Town	11	+4	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	+4	18
12	Lancaster City	13	−8	17
13	Hyde United	13	−10	14
14	Ashton United	11	+1	13
15	Quorn	12	−6	13
16	Whitby Town	12	−15	13
17	Stockton Town	13	−7	12
18	Leek Town	12	−1	11
19	AFC Emley	12	−13	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	−15	10
21	Ilkeston Town	13	−24	7
22	United of Manchester	11	−8	6